who would win a war between australia and china
Jamie Seidel @JamieSeidel 5 min read May 25, 2020 - 11:05AM The United States just lost a battle to save Taiwan from a Chinese invasion and it's not the first time. "And oh, by the way, it's just going to get harder as we get further into the . Hugh White, an emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, has warned about the serious consequences that could arise from not adequately addressing tensions. Chinas new Type-055 destroyers can carry 112 large missiles. The Miyako Strait connects the East China Sea with the Pacific Ocean. But it took four vulnerable tanker aircraft to carry them over that 6000km round trip. Wherever they start, they finish only when one side decides to give up. So to contribute to this discussion, Ive sought analysis from four of Australias most experienced military strategists and asked them exactly what Australias involvement in a war with China could look like. Credit:AP. the outcome for the U.S. was not a good one, a new report revealed this week. China could also weaponize its dominance of supply chains and shipping. Confronting as that would be, perhaps more confronting is something many people do not realise: such a decision would not require any consultation in parliament. "At the time what I could see was the possibility that our intelligence had uncovered the spectre of WMD in Iraq. The US believes China has about 2000 mid-range missiles in place, which could ward off the US Navy in a conflict. [A war is] something that you and I may well have to confront in the next five to 10 years, he said. The PLAs missile forces are central to Chinas efforts to deter and counter third-party intervention in a regional conflict, a US congressional report concluded this month. "On one hand, if China attacked the US homeland, similar to the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour, the US would respond with war. From Taiwan, the PLA could also pivot south, effectively enveloping the Philippines and giving Beijing easier access to the resource-rich Benham Rise, Dr Davis writes. Critically, the United States is no longer able to outproduce China in advanced weapons and other supplies needed in a war, which the current one in Ukraine has made clear. It is for that reason that some commentators, including me, do not think that China is likely to initiate an offensive war in the near future, until it is sure that it has enough mass to win quickly. by Robert Farley L Key Point: Escalation spirals are hard to. And that makes the kind of island-hopping campaign used by the US to take back the Pacific from Japan in World War II no longer feasible. americanmilitarynews.com - Radio Free Asia 18h. Would any divergence of perspectives be thrashed out before going to war? Beijings tactic of area denial already appears to have been effective. . Surrounded: Disturbing report from Ukraine. February 27, 2023 China's foreign minister Qin Gang will attend the G20 foreign ministers' meeting on March 2. The almost daily probes of Taiwans air defences would suddenly turn serious. Who has a better and stronger military, navy, air force, etc? The bulk of these goods is transported aboard ships along sea lanes increasingly controlled by Chinese commercial interests that are ultimately answerable to Chinas party-state. If we lost a single frigate, that's around 170 lives in an afternoon. Today, Chinas military spending is the second-highest in the world after the United States and continues to rise. A blockade, he says, would mean 80 per cent of ships and aircraft would be unable to pass. Our economy would be paralysed as all trade with China and other major East Asian partners would stop dead and may not resume for a long time. In a rare joint statement, the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council said it was their primary . Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military. It also allows the US to try to promote the notion it is not"an American war". But is Taiwans fate any of our business, as Beijing insists it isnt? Chinas leaders could discreetly offer negotiations to Taiwans leaders during a blockade before the risky step of ordering an amphibious invasion, Professor Fernandes says. China is largely trying to take territorial control, which makes east Asia a likely location for trouble. No emergency stockpiles have been established onshore. The world in 2025: China loses power, Russia 'won't exist' THE world's superpowers will be thrown into chaos and the war on IS will end. "That's what General Douglas Macarthur found in 1942. And given Beijings singular focus on finding a way to sink US-style aircraft carriers, their capacity to carry combat aircraft into effective range has been dramatically curtailed. It depends how it starts China and the United States are the great rivals in the competition to win the 21st century. In July 2020, BeiDou, Chinas version of GPS became fully operational, allowing it to track ships, planes, cars and smartphones from space without relying on the US technology that has dominated global positioning for decades. In Australia do these commentators truly believe what they have been saying or is it bluff? Who would win in a hypothetical battle between China and Japan? The Peoples Liberation Army is capable of substantially subduing the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. And what would such a fight look like? But which one would have military superiority in outright conflict? "The forces are relatively evenly matched, because USadvantages in technology are balanced by China's advantages in geography fighting close to home. A war would halt this trade (as well as American and allied shipments to China). Western submarines will play a role in restraining Chinas surface fleet. Our former role in the establishment of the UN is an exemplar of the kind of country we should aspire to be. "In the past, when I was working in government, we sometimes offered ministers some indication of the possible cost in lives if things went badly in the kind of lower-level commitments that we made in the 1990s. Should US tensions with China flare into a war there is no question that these days Washington would put enormous pressure on Albanese, or any future leader, to join them in that conflict. These engineers break their silenceafterdecade of criticism over2011 Queensland flood handling, Tens of thousands of pigs and buffalo pegged for mass culls in Kakadu, in bid to curb feral animals, With Russian forces closing, Svyat rolled the dice in the last days before Bakhmut fell, Anna called police to report an assault, but it backfired and she lost her home, Home ownership remains in fantasy territory for many. "I hope they don't mean that, just as Britain has the Gurkhas, the Americans have us. Chinas airfields, naval ports and missile bases are all nearby. By the time the Peoples Liberation Army launches its third volley of missiles at the island Beijing considers a breakaway province, the US could be just learning of the attack. Yet if China wanted to conquer Taiwan, the outcome could be different. The United States cannot win a war against China over Taiwan, four Australian defense experts have said in a series of interviews conducted by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. "When I was born in 1945 the world population stood at about 2.7 billion people. It runs between the Japanese islands of Mikako and Okinawa. The vision is not a new one: White knights charging forth, flags flying, to save friends from a bellowing dragon. The most immediate fight, however, appears to be centred on Taiwan. We seem incapable of arresting trends towards existential climate change threats. How Japan is fortifying a string of tiny islands to fence in China, Taiwan takes lessons from Ukraine as it speeds development of drones for military use, Visiting US Marine Corps chief warns 'everything in the cupboard' needed to prevent war with China, Man discovers two highly venomous species battling in his shed, Inside the family succession drama threatening to change the K-pop industry forever. The US military has been racking up decades of in-the-field experience, most recently with deployments in Afghanistan and Iraq and the Middle East. I am 68 and I am certain we will be at war with China within my lifetime. "Australia has been there before. He says Australia has a "fundamental strategic pathology:to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own". The capital of China is Beijing. The impact on Americans would be profound. But China is a different kind of foe a military, economic and technological power capable of making a war felt in the American homeland. The area around it would be highly contested and US war reserve stocks in the Pacific are earmarked for US forces that will assist Taiwan not for Taiwan itself. In this scenario, the US and its allies could respond by conducting airlifts to Taiwan. And that would leave Australias critical fuel supply links to Singapore desperately exposed. Hugh White,who is also Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, is clear in his analysis: I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australias support, could win a war with China over Taiwan.. Our biggest customer is now also viewed as our biggest threat andChina's muscle-flexing around Taiwan last week only strengthened the view that a war involving Taiwan is a genuine possibility. "For Australia the conflict would be devastating whether we joined the fighting or not. This means any idea of sustained operations within the Pacific-spanning reach of Chinas ballistic and cruise missiles is likely optimistic. What War with China Would Look Like, Part 2, will be published on Tuesdayand feature interviews with Allan Behm,former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Defence Department, and Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military. However, without the strong protection of the Australian forces, the world will be in peril from an unrestrained Emu army. For the US, the bigger the coalition of countries joining it in any war, the better. There is a pathway to a future through peaceful dialogue, but its a hard path, and it needs to be worked.. Maybe, the record would show otherwise in time? "Washington would expect Australia to contribute the full range of our air and naval forces to the maximum extent of our capability, including surface warships, submarines, F-18 and F-35 fighters, P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, airborne early warning aircraft and tanker aircraft.. China is now the dominant global industrial power by many measures. To accept that argument as policy would mark the end of our strategic alliance with the US, leaving us more exposed to Chinese coercive pressure and political warfare, or even a direct military threat, Dr Davis says. According to the late Sir James Plimsoll [in conversation with me], Mao Zedong said to Prime Minister Nehru when the two met in 1954 that, in a war with any adversary China could afford to dedicate 100 million dead. A new 'veloway' is welcome news for Melbourne's cyclists. The Chinese government last week released a 12-point plan it devised to bring about an end to . The head of Russian mercenary group Wagner says his forces have practically encircled the crucial city of Bakhmut. "I cannot conceive that there are any benefits in Australia being at war with China unless the circumstances were so serious as to make the cost in lives and treasury worthwhile. The divergence of the two Taiwan scenarios, a Chinese military attack or an invasion, says a lot about the relative military power of the US and China, itself a barometer of the strength of the two superpowers. Over the past two decades, China has built formidable political warfare and cyber warfare capabilities designed to penetrate, manipulate and disrupt the United States and allied governments, media organizations, businesses and civil society. Admiral Chris Barriemakes the point that its possible the impact on Australia of any war with China could be greater than any other participant because of Australias low population. Conflict over the island of Taiwan would be a disastrous experience for the peoples of the region, and its something that we should all work to avoid. He says that unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into the conflict and their families, a war with China would have an impact on all Australians "economically, financially and personally it is likely to impoverish us all; it may even kill most of us if it goes nuclear". Rockets figure heavily in Beijings arsenal. U.S. supplies of many products could soon run low, paralyzing a vast range of businesses. Allan Behm, now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years the best potential outcome for the US is a stalemate. Iraq should have taught us that it makes no sense to support an ally in a war it cant win, and the stakes are much higher this time.. Australia had long maintained it didn't have to choose. The contemplation of war can only be justified after all other means of settling differences have failed, and we are a long way from reaching this position (over Taiwan)," he says. "As a continental power, China has a distinct preference for land warfare. We dont own cargo ships to force vital supplies through any blockade. Beijings response was prompt and predictable. The map below, compiled from data provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is the most accurate nuclear attack map and fallout demonstration available for 2023: (Image courtesy of FEMA and Halcyon Maps) The fallout would rapidly spread, turning targeted cities into whole affected regions. But there's also bad news ahead. But that would require strikes on Chinas mainland, with all the enormous risks of escalation that could portend. "China's leaders could discreetly offer negotiations to Taiwan's leaders during a blockade before the risky step of ordering an amphibious invasion," Professor Fernandes says. A war with China over Taiwan, awful as that would be, involves no Australian national interests. The consequences for us would be very serious in terms of the Australian economy, the impact on the Australian people and the ravages to our way of life throughout the land. He believes Australia has a "fundamental strategic pathology to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own.". "For my part Australians may be able to defend our nation because of our geographic good luck. Meia Nouwens from the International Institute for Strategic Studies said Beijing was intent on achieving primacy in the waters that surround China. "Even so, the UN has not been able to avert war. "Today we can see change for the worse all over the globe. The US Air Force boasts nearly 2300 warplanes in service, with another 1422 aircraft in use for the US Navy and Marines, Janes calculates. This is what a statesman should do as a risk averse response. "The bases in South Korea and Japan may not be available, and Guam may also be unavailable. How Japan is fortifying a string of tiny islands to fence in China, Taiwan takes lessons from Ukraine as it speeds development of drones for military use, Visiting US Marine Corps chief warns 'everything in the cupboard' needed to prevent war with China, Man discovers two highly venomous species battling in his shed, Inside the family succession drama threatening to change the K-pop industry forever. "Yet, as both [Opposition leader] Dutton and [Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence] Richard Marles have indicated in their various pronouncements on the matter, our default position is "all the way with the USA" wherever and whenever. Taiwan is slightly bigger than the state of Maryland; if you recall how quickly Afghanistan and Kabul fell to the Taliban in 2021, you start to realize that the takeover of Taiwan could happen relatively quickly. "Wars contain elements of the irrational: pride, fear, ego, confidence, humiliation, and other emotions that elude our attempts at calculation. There are plenty of nations with grievances against China for its South China Sea policy. There are still hundreds of diplomats and politicians around the world including in Canberra working openly and behind the scenes to ensuretensions between China and the US never escalate into war. "The question requires urgent, high-profile debate in parliament and among the wider public. But Chinas been preparing to take and hold Taiwan by force for decades. And the West may not be able to do much about it. It is very plausible to say there is no guarantee of victory in the first phases, Lyle Goldstein, a research professor at the Naval War Colleges China Maritime Studies Institute, told Newsweek. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. "They have publicly been very clear about not only . The most probable spark is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Then, it was mainly Germany, and from the 1930s Japan. For a second day in a row Taiwan has reported a large-scale air force incursion, escalating tensions in the region. Which is why Beijing would be so determined to secure them. Credit:Getty. And, crucially, they would probably not be able to inflict enough damage to decisively defeat the Chinese. At least initially, the bulk of any such conflict would be at sea. If not, what steps have been taken to change our posture? But China has more at stake, because in the long run Taiwan matters a lot moreto China than to America. If a conflict were to erupt in east Asia, then the Chinese military is closer to on par with the United States. What would war with China look like for Australia? It may turn out to be childs play compared with the havoc China could wreak on the American homeland in a war. The leaders of both Ukraine and Russia are expected to meet with China's president in the near future. Reinforcing Taiwan would likely involve long and bloody battles at sea as underarmed escorts struggle to protect the few but highly vulnerable available transports. A War With China Would Be Unlike Anything Americans Faced Before, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/27/opinion/a-war-with-china-would-reach-deep-into-american-society.html, more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles, worlds largest navy and Asias biggest air force, the East is rising while the West is declining. All four analysts have held the highest security clearances that its possible to have. Also, we do not have the equivalent of the Chilcott report to illuminate the story. Are bills set to rise? "Depending on the scenario, here's what is reasonably predictable: "Firepower strike can vary from a limited strike against symbolic targets to extensive strikes against energy and transport infrastructure (power stations and petroleum, oil, and lubricant (POL) storage sites, highways, railways, bridges, tunnels) as well as military targets (air defence systems, coastal defence cruise missile launchers, fighter aircraft, artillery). I think China now has adequate forces, including air, missile, electronic warfare, spec ops, naval, undersea and nuclear, to likely prevail in the first phase and perhaps in subsequent phases too.. While these have been costly, they also provided invaluable combat experience. Critical assets such as radars and airfields will immediately be targeted. Even by 2050 our 37 million people could not amount to much alongside countries having a population base of over 100 million people many of them in our region. But precision bombing requires the military to have access to space, where orbiting satellites help guide munitions. The military scenario alone is daunting: China would probably launch a lightning air, sea and cyber assault to seize control of key strategic targets on Taiwan within hours, before the United States and its allies could intervene. The war in Ukraine reminds us of how uncertain these things canbe for both sides. "If we joined the fight, or allowed US forces involved to operate from bases here, then there would be a clear chance that Australia would face direct attack from Chinese long-range forces. "Given the size of the Australia's forces and the logistic constraints on the US forces, a war against China would be a very hard war to fight. "It is possible that the impact on Australia could be greater than any other assailant because of our low population. It was Kevin Rudd who coined the phrase a "decade of living dangerously". "In the case of war with China the questions we need to ask ourselves are: "When I stepped down as the Chief of theDefence Force in July 2002 I had not seen any information leading to the conclusion that an invasion of Iraq was inevitable. What determines victory, loss or stalemate between the US and China is likely to be determined by the murky calculus of how much risk and how much pain and loss both sides could endure. It can impose costs on our forces. The national broadcaster carried out the interviews with "four of Australia's most experienced military strategists" Here are some tips. Taiwan is much closer to China than the United States. The context for decision making would be vitally important weighing the potential costs to the country, domestically and internationally, against the value of that cost for maintaining the ANZUS relationship. Chris Zappone and Eryk Bagshaw June 30, 2021 China-US superpower showdown: military strength Matthew Absalom-Wong The collapse of the League of Nations and the dreadful cost of war held hard lessons for how we had to manage international relationships better. That leaves its navy as its primary fighting force. "A cross-strait invasion is the most dangerous scenario from China's perspective. Its military budget is greater than the combined expenditure of India, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Vertical launch systems (VLS) are the modern-day equivalent of the World War II-era big gun. "He would rather support Taiwan and enlist countries around the world in sanctioning or condemning China. "Australia's real utility is as a strategic asset, giving both legitimacy and credibility to the US decision to employ its very formidable military force, and at the same time providing the US with a secure rear that could guarantee logistic and operational support. What would war with China look like for Australia? The U.S. economy is heavily dependent on Chinese resources and manufactured goods, including many with military applications, and American consumers rely on moderately priced Chinese-made imports for everything from electronics to furniture to shoes. China is closing the gap, but will they be able to defeat America by the beginning of the next decade. China had 55 small war ships in 2020, more than double the number it had five years ago. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. Yet the war in Ukraine is relatively small-scale compared with the likely demands of a major war in the Indo-Pacific. The general sense among Western European publics is that the current situation in Ukraine is stalemate, rather than one side having an advantage. An accident could trigger a cycle of escalation. And all are watching with great interest as the drums of war beat in some quarters regarding a possible war with China. Despite decades of warnings, our fuel refineries continue to close. Let's take a look at who would . It isn't Ukraine. Were working to restore it. Destroy the offensive capability of the PLAN and People . To use the words of one leading military analyst, Australia could find itself "sleepwalking" into a war with China. "China's IADS makes a blockade the most likely scenario. But it doesnt follow that either America or Australia should therefore go to war with China to defend Taiwan, Professor Hugh White noted in 2019. The USs 1.38 million active personnel are better trained and equipped than many of their 1.9 million Chinese peers but getting them in place, and in time, to take on China would be a crucial task. Mr. Xi has championed . "China would not seek to deploy land forces to the US (nor Australia for that matter). He says given the rate at which Chinese forces are modernising and building both capability and capacity, "a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035". I suspect the US under the current president, Joe Biden, despite his various ambiguous statements, will avoid a direct confrontation with China. President Xi Jinping of China has said unifying Taiwan with mainland China must be achieved. His Communist Party regime has become sufficiently strong militarily, economically and industrially to take Taiwan and directly challenge the United States for regional supremacy. In its consequences, it would be profoundly and devastatingly different. 3-min read. A major war in the Indo-Pacific is probably more likely now than at any other time since World War II. And a mountain range makes it hard to reinforce via its eastern shores. Major combat against the US means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. "As I see the decision for the invasion of Iraq I think it was made by the Prime Minister. We should not assume it will attempt this.". But leaders in Washington also need to avoid stumbling carelessly into a war with China because it would be unlike anything ever faced by Americans. But the definition of ancestral territory appears to be changing rapidly. I did not see anything like the same discontent in Australia. March 11, 2021 Ryan Morgan Last fall, the U.S. Air Force played out a war scenario with China, in which China begins its attack by deploying a biological weapon throughout the Indo-Pacific region. "So, how would China prosecute the war? "That is one reason to expect a stalemate.". It means mine laying by air and naval units, particularly submarines, blockading ports, inspecting maritime traffic including commercial shipping, intercepting aircraft, and attacking adversary military forces as necessary. "This would be followed by a sea-crossing phase, a landing phase and a consolidation phase. China also has more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles poised to strike U.S. and allied forces in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and American-held territories in the Western Pacific. He uses it in his new book, The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict Between the US and Xi Jinping's. Put bluntly, the repercussions of Australia joining the US in any war with China over the status of Taiwan or any other issue may have catastrophic consequences. These flew out of Japan and down the east coast of Taiwan to operate near the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier battle group and the Chinese Liaoning. He spent the bulk. The structure of the military is also different. As with the Gulf War in 2003, Washington is always keen to enlist as many countries as possible to spread the cost and political risk.